The efficiencies of Chinese coal-fired power plants: a stochastic-frontier approach

We apply the stochastic frontier of translog production function to estimate the efficiencies of Chinese coal-fired power plants, using a survey sample of 300 power plants over 5 years from 2004 to 2008 for estimation. By taking into account, the ages of generators and a technological factor reflected by a dummy for supercritical generators, we identified the improvement of efficiencies in the Chinese power industry over the period, and the coal-fired power plants that still run inefficiently by approximate 9% on average when compared with the best practice of cost efficiency in the power industry.     

Prediction of Ideas Number During a Brainstorming Session

In this paper, we present an approach allowing the prediction of ideas number during a brainstorming session. This prediction is based on two dynamic models of brainstorming, the non-cognitive and the cognitive models proposed by Brown and Paulus (Small Group Res 27(1):91–114, 1996). These models describe for each participant, the evolution of ideas number over time, and are formalized by differential equations. Through solution functions of these models, we propose to calculate the number of ideas of each participant on any time intervals and thus in the future (called prediction). To be able to compute solution functions, it is necessary to determine the parameters of these models. In our approach, we use optimization model for model parameters calculation in which solution functions are approximated by numerical methods. We developed two generic optimization models, one based on Euler’s and the other on the fourth order Runge–Kutta’s numerical methods for the solving of differential equations, and we apply them to the non-cognitive and respectively to the cognitive models. Through some feasibility tests, we show the adequacy of the proposed approach to our prediction context.     

Developing Alteratives: Energy,Offices and the Environment

This paper maps some of the social and commercial forces shaping the debate around ‘realistic’ or ‘appropriate’ levels of energy specification in the commercial office market. It discusses how the dynamics of the market, alternative lease arrangements, enhanced building management standards, technological innovation and shifts in cultural taste are all redefining contemporary office space and presenting new opportunities for environmental innovation. Drawing upon interviews with developers, investors, agents, occupiers and property researchers in Britain and France, the changing, often conflicting, priorities underpinning decisions about energy standards are explored. The paper explores possible ‘futures’ for office development processes in the United Kingdom. Highlighting the ebb and flow of the market, the paper points to the changing nature of tenant demand and current ‘opportunities’ for the development of alternative, more ‘realistic’ energy specification levels. Looking beyond the current property slump it examines the cultural and structural shifts likely to sustain any reformation of British real estate practices. In particular, the paper highlights contemporary debates around transformation of the institutional lease and legislative codification of energy and environmental standards. It is argued that this loose constellation of social forces promises a significant, new mutuality of interests between developers and occupiers which is cultivating ‘appropriate’ specification and procurement practices. Cet article retrace certaines des formes sociales et commerciales qui modèlent le débat sur les niveaux ‘réalistes’ ou ‘appropriés’ de spécification de l'énergie dans le marché des bureaux commerciaux. Il explique comment les dynamiques du marché, l'organisation alternative du bail, une meilleure gestion des immeubles, la nouveauté technologique et le changement des goûts culturels redéfinissent l'espace contemporain du bureau et présentent de nouvelles opportunités d'innovation de l'environnement. M'appuyant sur des entrevues avec des promoteurs, des agents, des occupants et des chercheurs sur les propriétés immobilières en Grande-Bretagne et en France, j'examine les priorités changeantes et souvent contradictoires qui supportent les décisions quant aux niveaux d'énergie. Cet article explore les ‘futurs’ possibles pour les processus de développement des bureaux au Royaume Uni. Soulignant le va et vient du marché, cet article démontre la nature changeante de la demande des locataires et les ‘opportunités’ actuelles quant au développement de niveaux alternatifs et plus ‘réalistes’ de spécification de l'énergie. En regardant par delà l'effrondement actuel du marché immobilier, il examine les mouvements culturels et structuraux qui pourraient supporter une réforme des pratiques des agents immobiliers britanniques. Cet article souligne en particulier les débats contemporains sur la transformation du bail institutionnel et la codification législative de la qualité de l'environnement et de l'énergie. Je soutiens que cette constellation décousue de forces sociales promet une nouvelle et significative mutualité d'intérêts entre les promoteurs et les occupants qui cultive les spécifications ‘appropriées’ et les pratiques d'acquisition.     

Response style behavior: question format dependent or personal style?

In survey research, acquiescence response style/set (ARS) and extreme response style/set (ERS) may distort the measurement of attitudes. How response bias is evoked is still subject of research. A key question is whether it may be evoked by external factors (e.g. test conditions or fatigue) or whether it could be the result of internal factors (e.g. personality or social characteristics). In the first part of this study we explore whether scale length—the manipulated test condition—influences the occurrence of ERS and/or ARS, by varying scale length from 5 till 11 categories. In pursuit of this we apply a latent class factor model that allows for diagnosing and correcting for ERS and ARS simultaneously. Results show that ERS occurs regardless of scale length. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence of ARS. In a second step we check whether ERS might reflect an internal personal style by (a) linking it to external measures of ERS, and by (b) correlating it with a personality profile and socio-demographic characteristics. Results show that ERS is reasonably stable over questionnaires and that it is associated with the selected personality profile and age.     

A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations

Abstract

The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger population is modeled independently, and the smaller population is modeled in terms of spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort effects between the larger and smaller populations depend on gravity or spread reversion parameters for the two effects. The larger the two gravity parameters, the more strongly the smaller population’s mortality rates move in line with those of the larger population in the long run. This is important where it is believed that the mortality rates between related populations should not diverge over time on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model is illustrated using an extension of the Age-Period-Cohort model and mortality rate data for English and Welsh males representing a large population and the Continuous Mortality Investigation assured male lives representing a smaller related population.     

Stock price informativeness and analyst coverage

We examine whether more analyst coverage translates into more informative stock prices and apply this to both developed and emerging markets. We measure price informativeness using the association between current stock returns and future earnings. We argue that more informative stock prices contain more information about future earnings. Results indicate that analysts' activities do not contribute to the impounding of future earnings information into current stock prices, in accordance with the view that analysts are outsiders who do not have full access to firm‐level information. We also find that analysts specialize according to industry and that “industry expertise” is limited to developed countries. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the explanation that analysts focus on gathering and mapping industry‐ and market‐level information (macroeconomic information) into stock prices. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From crinkly sheds to fashion parks: the role of financial investment in the transformation of retail parks

The retail park is one of the most ubiquitous and significant forms of off-centre retailing in the UK. Originally designed as low-cost accommodation for 'bulky goods', retail parks now include high-rent 'fashion parks' which are eagerly sought by institutional investors for long-term ownership. This paper explains why retail-park ownership, originating in the early 1980s in one-off schemes by locally based property developers, has become the province of major property companies, financial institutions, and asset managers. Growth in rents and capital values has been fuelled by increasing institutional investment, and by fears of a growing scarcity of high-quality developments because of town-planning restrictions. This pressure is now leading to attempts to realize the full capital value of older developments, through processes of 'active management' by the new breed of retail-park owners. In turn, this is leading to increasingly rapid changes of retail occupiers, involving in some cases the expulsion of the original 'bulky goods' retailers for whom retail parks were created. A parallel with the 'Wheel of Retailing' model of institutional change is suggested.     

The surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a correlated risk process

This paper presents an explicit characterization for the joint probability density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a general risk process, which includes the Sparre-Andersen risk model with phase-type inter-claim times and claim sizes. The model can also accommodate a Markovian arrival process which enables claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. The marginal density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin is specifically considered. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of this result.     

Economic and Cultural Implications of China's One Belt One Road Initiative for the Film Industry: Cultural Distance and Taste Preference

China's official One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy has aroused considerable interest worldwide. This grand concept is potentially of great significance for China's film industry, among others, which has been included as an important part of the national drive to expand China's cultural influence overseas. OBOR represents a great opportunity for China's film industry to shift the emphasis of its market segmentation from reliance on Western influences to a more Eastern orientation. Its promise of closer economic and cultural ties brings great international marketing potential. China's film industry should embrace this significant opportunity by further addressing the cultural variables in its overseas distribution, creating detailed national taste profiles. The synergic development of the Asian film industries can unlock resources, technology and a very large market, presenting both opportunities and challenges. This study quantifies the cultural distances (CDs) and differences in genre preference between China and other countries involved in the OBOR initiative, based on 2016 box‐office data. The analysis reveals an absence of systematic and persistent correlation in CD and genre preference from country to country. In addition, the clustered distribution of genre preference within geographical boundaries makes cultural integration more directional.